With the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 NFL season will be be unlike any other. Arguably the most unique aspect of this season, aside from player safety and availability, will be the absence of fans in stadiums for majority of NFL teams earlier in the fall.
As the players will tell you, an electric playing environment can fundamentally change the outcomes of games, particularly for teams with strong home field advantage. Unfortunately, fan attendance policies resulting from COVID-19 will not be uniform across franchises, which has become a source of controversy for several head coaches.
Initial fan attendance policies
According to information from Sporting News, only five teams are allowing at least some fans to attend their home games in Week 1. Below is the breakdown of all NFL franchises' fan attendance policies to begin the season.
No fans at home for entire season or foreseeable future: Bears, Raiders, Rams, Chargers, Giants, Jets, Eagles, Washington Football Team
No fans for at least first two or more home games: Cardinals, Falcons, Ravens, Bills, Packers, Vikings, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks, Buccaneers
No fans for at least first home game: Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Broncos, Lions, Texans, Saints, 49ers, Titans
Fans allowed in limited capacity immediately: Cowboys, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Dolphins
Note that each of these policies are subject to changes in the spread of the pandemic and state government guidance.
Measuring home field advantage
When we think of home field advantage in the NFL, the crowd noise of Century Link Field and U.S. Bank Stadium, and cold weather of Lambeau Field and Heinz Field, come to mind as game-changing attributes. But, which teams have proven to benefit from home field advantage over the years? In other words, does playing at home yield better outcomes of disproportionately more total wins, more total points scored and fewer total points allowed?
Naturally, any given football team tends to win more, score more and allow fewer points when playing at home, through the support of their surrounding fan base and familiar playing environment. So, generally speaking, those teams that have historically strong home game environments stand to lose with empty and even partially-filled stadiums.
Below, we use the "outcomes-focused" definition of home field advantage (using data from the past ten regular seasons), along with each franchise's preliminary fan attendance policy, to identify which teams are most helped and hurt by the temporary disappearance of fans.
Most Helped
1. The Los Angeles teams
Not having fans at the brand-new SoFi Stadium means little for two franchises have won more games on the road than in the City of Angels since relocating to L.A. Playing their home games at temporary sites over the past few seasons, the Rams and Chargers have regularly played host to large crowds of opposing fan bases. And, while that might change with a new stadium, they stand to gain as their early-season opponents, like the Eagles, are stripped of a home field advantage.
2. Dallas Cowboys
You might be surprised to learn that America's Team has been no better off at home than on the road over the past decade, winning exactly as many as they've lost and giving up more points at home than on the road (52% of total points allowed). They are also one of the five franchises allowing some fans into AT&T stadium, beginning in Week 2 versus the Falcons, which should give them a leg up versus their NFC East rivals that could possibly be without fans all season.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are the only team on this list of beneficiaries that has a historically-strong home field advantage. And, the reason that Indy gains in this environment is that they, like the Cowboys, are still allowing attendance up to 25% capacity (~17K fans) at Lucas Oil Stadium, an crowd large enough to still be helpful when facing a difficult Vikings team in Week 2.
Most Hurt
1. New York Jets
The Jets?! Not necessarily the team you think of when hearing "home field advantage." To much surprise, a significant portion of an, albeit, small number of Jets wins over the past decade has come at MetLife Stadium, in addition to disproportionately higher levels offensive and defensive production. Paired with the fact that both New York City teams are likely looking at no fans for the entire season and it's hard to find a more disadvantaged team.
2. Green Bay Packers
In the Packers' case, a sacred Lambeau GameDay environment is directly correlated with winning. The Packers rank fifth highest in the percentage of total points scored at when playing at home and third lowest in the percentage of total points allowed when playing at home. The reason for Green Bay not taking the top spot on this list is due to their much shakier home track record earlier in the season, in comparison with December games at the Frozen Tundra, which may lessen the impact of no fans during its first two games.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Like the Jets and their divisional rival Packers, a large portion of Minnesota's wins have come at home over the past decade (69%), unquestionably aided by a loud playing environment produced by the iconic Viking Gjallarhorn and jam-packed indoor setting. This home turf advantage will be greatly missed when fans are completely absent from the Vikings' first two home games that come against last year's Championship Game runners up, the Packers and Titans.
Comments