It's finally here - rivalry week for the Packers.
Well, at least that's how their series with the Bears has historically been described. But, since Aaron Rodgers took over as starter in Green Bay, Chicago has just five wins beside 22 losses against the Packers, without a season sweep during that time frame and the largest margin of victory in those five wins a mere touchdown.
In fact, if you subtract the Packers' 20-point first half deficit in the 2018 season opener (a game that they ultimately won), the Bears haven't held a lead of more than 10 points on the Packers at any point during the Rodgers era. In terms of absolute accomplishments, the Bears haven't won a playoff game since the week before they lost to Green Bay in the 2010 NFC Title game - while the Packers have 11 postseason wins under Rodgers.
Indeed, it's been a lopsided series of late between two of the league's oldest franchises. However, the Bears are a new-look team in 2021 with Justin Fields under center. After starting 1-2, Chicago has won back-to-back games on stout performances by its defense, a formidable rushing attack on offense and operational competence on the part of the rookie Fields.
The Packers' meeting with Chicago this week will surely be their toughest since Matt LaFleur's debut as Packers' head coach in 2019.
On Offense
Talent wise, the Bears' current D isn't quite the same unit that could win games on its own circa 2006. While second-year Jaylon Johnson has impressed, Chicago is missing a true shutdown cornerback in its secondary. Similarly, their D-line isn't the same force it once was, with Akiem Hicks' best years behind him. Still, the Chicago defense is very well-coached, having quickly adapted to the scheme of new coordinator Sean Desai.
A lot of the Packers' offensive production hinges on the health of its O-line. Down three starters last week in Cincinnati, the Packers had a difficult time getting the run game going, a crucial aspect to the offense that may be even more difficult to establish this Sunday against the Bears' stingy front seven. If the Packers don't have Elgton Jenkins or Josh Myers for yet another week, they'll need to adjust play design accordingly.
Look for LaFleur to employ more creativity in the way Aaron Jones is used, such as the shovel pass behind a motioning receiver and two blocking tight ends that the Packers led with on their first drive last week. Knowing that the Bears will double-team Davante Adams at every opportunity, Rodgers will be forced to reduce his reliance on Adams and for other receivers to beat them, especially on third down and in the red zone.
On Defense
Consistently inept at offensive skill players, the Bears' offense hasn't turned in a single 30-point game against the Packers since 2007. However, Joe Barry's defense could have a difficult time replicating Green Bay's success on Sunday without their two best defenders in pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Where the Packers may be most vulnerable from a health perspective, they'll get a favorable matchup: the Bears' passing offense ranks last in the league. Without starters Alexander and Kevin King, all eyes will be on rookie Eric Stokes and whichever recently-acquired veteran cornerback Joe Barry chooses to line up opposite him. Chandon Sullivan and Shermar Jean-Charles will likely remain in the slot role, sharing the tall order of ascending receiver Darnell Mooney.
While Fields' line across three starts hasn't turned heads, it's his mobility and impressive game instincts that could pose a challenge for Barry and the Packers defense. I'm looking for linebackers De'Vondre Campbell and Krys Barnes to build on a strong performance last week and contain Fields' scrambling while blanketing outlets Damien Williams and Cole Kmet in the short range passing game.
PackerDay Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 21
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