Since Russell Wilson entered the NFL in 2012, he and Aaron Rodgers have curated one of the most storied player rivalries of their generation: The Fail Mary. An NFC title game heartache. Down to the wire in the 2019 playoffs.
The decade-long series has, indeed, been competitive. Six of their eight meetings have been decided by one possession or less. But, interestingly enough, neither quarterback has won on the other's turf during their common time in the league: Rodgers is 4-0 at Lambeau and Wilson is 4-0 at CenturyLink (now Lumen Field). In fact, Seattle hasn’t won in Green Bay since 1999, before they joined the NFC.
Sunday's matchup between Rodgers and Wilson will come with a twist: both players are coming off stretches of missed time. Wilson will be playing his first game since injuring his finger in early October while Rodgers, sidelined in Week 9 due to testing positive for COVID-19, will also try to quickly get in sync with the offense after limited preparation this week.
As has been the case in recent GB-SEA contests, their Week 10 date comes with added importance. At 3-5, Seattle’s postseason hopes grow dimmer with a loss on Sunday. With Wilson back and the team coming off a bye, you can expect Pete Carroll’s refreshed Seahawks to play four quarters of discipline football. Across the field, Matt LaFleur and the Packers will look to sustain an impressive streak of avoiding back-to-back losses since LaFleur took over as head coach in 2019.
On Offense
On Sunday, Rodgers and the Packers will get a Seattle defense much less-talented than they’re accustomed to facing, with most of the big names from their mid-2010s teams gone. Still remaining from that era, however, is linebacker Bobby Wagner who leads the league in tackles. The veteran Wagner is a big reason for Seattle’s success shutting down dominant rushing attacks led by Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris in recent weeks.
Still, the explosive Packers’ backfield of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should make life difficult for Seattle defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. and the Seahawks’ front seven. Blatantly one-dimensional over their past two games, the Green Bay offense was still able to ride the ground game for over 120 rushing yards in each contest and keep the chains moving on short passes to their versatile running backs.
The Hawks also have young talent in their deep secondary; most notably, former Jets safety Jamaal Adams. Adams and fellow safety Quandre Diggs will be tasked with tracking Packers’ deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whose five-game absence had made it difficult for LaFleur to stretch the field in the passing game. I expect LaFleur to sprinkle in a number of ‘Go’ routes for MVS, partially to open up space for Davante Adams underneath.
On Defense
In their three home games this season, the Packers defense has been nothing short of dominant, allowing an average of 15 points per game. But, Wilson and the Seattle offense represents their toughest test inside Lambeau to-date. Facing an elite quarterback for a third-straight week, Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry is surely spending time thinking about his preferred matchups on Seattle’s dangerous wide receivers.
I predict that 6’3” Kevin King will mostly line up on the big-bodied D.K. Metcalf, who was largely held in check as a rookie during Seattle’s 2020 playoff loss to Green Bay. The combination of Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas will be responsible for the speedy Tyler Lockett. A chance for snow on Sunday could make this assignment even more daunting for the rookie Stokes who, despite having played well overall, has already allowed several big plays downfield. Look for Barry to supply help from safety Darnell Savage when Seattle goes to the long ball.
Thanks mostly to pro bowl-caliber play from its inside linebackers, the Packers have been stingy against the run over the past month. In fact, excluding rushing yards from opposing quarterbacks, the Packers haven’t allowed a backfield to rush for over 100 yards since Week 1 against the Saints. I expect this trend to continue versus the combination of Alex Collins and (likely) Chris Carson.
PackerDay Prediction: Packers 24 Seahawks 13
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