When the 2021 schedule was released in April, a season opener featuring the Packers and Saints was hardly unexpected. The two perennial NFC contenders have a history of competitive, regular season contests that, up until recently, usually ended in favor of the home team.
This year's clash with the Saints, however, will have a different feel than in seasons past. The Packers will get the Saints without quarterback Drew Brees for the first time since 2002. Additionally, they'll dodge familiar skill position threats in Michael Thomas (still recovering from an ankle injury), Emmanual Sanders (signed with Buffalo in free agency) and Jared Cook (signed with the L.A. Chargers in free agency).
Instead, the New Orleans offense will operate behind what's expected to remain somewhat of a quarterback platoon.
While Jameis Winston - a known turnover machine - was named as the official Week 1 starter, you can expect head coach Sean Payton to regularly rotate in former Packer, Taysom Hill. With a Packers defense that's historically inept versus mobile QBs and facing a Saints ground game that has particularly damaging to the Packers in recent meetings, it's Hill and the New Orleans backfield that should garner attention from new D-coordinator Joe Barry.
What to Watch For
Payton likes to use running back Alvin Kamara similarly to how Aaron Jones is used within Matt LaFleur's system: as a between-the-tackles back, in the screen game and, very regularly, split out as a receiver. With the game being played outdoors in Jacksonville, the Packers won't have to contend with Kamara on his usual, indoor fast track.
Still, he remains a game-changer, no matter the playing surface.
It's no secret that the Packers' pass defense is infinitely more talent than its run D. Without much improvement on that front during the offseason, I'm concerned about what Kamara and Hill can do versus a thin defensive line that is regularly overmatched in the trenches and an inside linebacker position that continues to lack overall physicality.
You can expect the Saints' ground game to play a major role in Payton's overall game plan. If their backfield can establish a tempo on the ground, the Packers will have fewer passing-down opportunities to induce bad decisions by Winston. It will also help limit the time that Aaron Rodgers and the offense have to assemble long drives ending with points on the board, something they did particularly well last season. Time of possession may ultimately decide the winner of this one.
Prediction
Even with the Saints' subtle transformation on offense, I fully expect for this game to live up to its late-afternoon spot. But, it may not be as high scoring as Vegas is predicting. With a completely new o-line installed - combined with a total of zero preseason reps from Rodgers, Jones, Davante Adams and the re-acquired Randall Cobb - I expect the offense to experience some growing pains before operating at full capacity.
With that said, the Packers are too talented to drop this very winnable game in front of what should be a decent number of Packers fans.
PackerDay Prediction: Packers 24 Saints 19
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