Two years ago, GM Brian Gutekunst made the potentially franchise-altering decision of trading up to pick 26 of the 2020 NFL draft and selecting Utah State's Jordan Love.
Since then, he's faced a whole heap of criticism from the Packers' faithful and NFL media alike for overlooking roster "needs" in favor a high-risk, high-reward prospect that cost the Packers an extra fourth-rounder in the process.
The bold move was in direct contrast with the near-term benefits that other GMs often pounce on (how easy would have it been to select say, wide receiver Tee Higgins?). Instead, Gutekunst chose to lean into the Packers' long-held Best Player Available (BPA) philosophy and the mindset that "the best time to draft a quarterback is when you don't need one." As a result, Gutekunst has had to own the perception of an overly-zealous futurist during every incompletion, sack or interception made by Love thus far in his early-career progression.
His forward-thinking decision is about to come to a head during what's destined to be a pivotal offseason for the franchise. The big question for Gute and the Packers: Is it time to take a chance on Love?
How Love Has Fared Thus Far
For a guy that's been in the league for two seasons, Love has remarkably little gameday experience. His development was stunted during the pandemic season that lost what would have been an invaluable preseason for the youngster and ultimately prevented him from taking a single snap of live action as a rookie.
He got his chances in 2021, though, beginning in the preseason versus the Texans, Jets and Bills. His performance across those games was a mixed bag, leading several productive drives but also committing several ugly mistakes. The regular season provided more opportunity, beginning with dead-time snaps against the Saints in Week 1.
Love's real action came in Week 9 against Kansas City and during the second half of the Packers' regular season finale in Detroit. In both games, head coach Matt LaFleur attempted to install Love as the operator of a run-heavy offense; a role that was in direct contrast with his college self but one that he would need to embrace as a young QB in the NFL. In these games, LaFleur called about two runs for every passing play and emphasized high-probability out routes and flat passes when leaving the ball in Love's hands.
The results? About what you'd expect from a project quarterback whose strengths shine brightest as a downfield passer. A strong running game regularly moved the chains and, when he finally found a rhythm, Love got the Packers deep into opposing territory. But, those successes were often on the heels of missed short-range passes and scrambling. Even worse, Love's panicking while under pressure often resulted in high-leverage decision-making and, inevitably, turnovers.
He should be further along at this stage, right? Not if you're comparing him to Aaron Rodgers, whose development through two years was hardly more impressive from a stats perspective. However, even despite the equally-paltry track records over their first two years, there has been a difference. Rodgers was much more polished mechanically, seldom guilty of throwing off his back foot or missing receivers in the flat. He also understood the importance of prioritizing sacks over turnovers on errants throws, something Love is yet to demonstrate.
Love's performance rightfully deserves some handicaps and asterisks, but the bottom line is that, after Year 2, he still looks no where near ready to take over as starter.
What Now?
Much of the franchise's direction this offseason hinges Rodgers' decision on whether to return to the Packers, which has a direct ripple effect on both Love's future in Green Bay and the continuity of the entire roster.
If Rodgers retires or wants out of Green Bay, it means a perhaps, pre-mature beginning to the Jordan Love era. This path almost certainly includes the addition of a veteran quarterback in free agency and/or a Brian Brohm-esque hedge in April's draft. Despite the major question marks surrounding Love's capability as starter, this option affords the Packers the financial means of retaining many key contributors, while also possibly netting multiple first round picks in the scenario of a Rodgers trade.
If Rodgers signs a multi-year extension with the Packers, it seems the front office has already made up their mind on the Love experiment. It would make next to no sense in keeping Love as a backup beyond his rookie deal in this case: a fire-sale trade or release would be in the best interests of both the Packers and Love, who may find some success elsewhere during that time frame instead of wilting away on the bench.
Finally, if Rodgers agrees to play out the final year of his original contract, with plans to retire or move on to another team in 2023, it affords Love one more year to try and develop within LaFleur's system and use ad-hoc playing time to showcase his candidacy as "the guy," as many had hoped he would do this season. This is the best option for both Love and the Packers, provided that they still believe in him as Rodgers' eventual heir.
Jordan Love is just 23 years-old and there's no question that the organization would benefit from seeing more of him in live action. But, Rodgers' decision this winter could force Brian Gutekunst's hand on how to proceed forward at quarterback. Will he double down on his bet from two years ago - OR eat some pride the way he did with journeyman quarterback DeShone Kizer?
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