We're only two months away from the beloved NFL draft -- and football fans everywhere are prepared to overreact in one direction or another toward the half dozen college stars that their team's GM eyes as the future of the franchise.
We all know that "the faces of the franchise" aren't procured overnight and, candidly, rarely demonstrate long-term aptitude until at least a year or two into their careers. In fact, much of the success we saw from the Packers over the past decade is attributable to some of earliest roster moves made by the late Ted Thompson. With his first draft pick as Packers' GM in 2005, Thompson armed the organization with potentially the best player to play the game in Aaron Rodgers. He then followed it up with a host of other early-round greats: Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, David Bakhtiari, Davante Adams, Kenny Clark and Aaron Jones.
Thompson's knack for finding offensive play makers in particular has had a lasting effect that bridged past his time as Packers' GM and into that of Brian Gutekunst, who took over in early 2018. Thanks to the presence of Rodgers, Jones, Bakhtiari and Adams, Gutekunst hasn't had to invest many resources into that part of the roster, instead focusing on plugging holes on defense in the three drafts and free agency periods during his tenure as GM.
Gutekunst's Track Record
Gutekunst has been successful overall when leaning on free agency to fill big talent gaps on the roster, hitting it out of the park with pass rushers Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, offensive lineman Billy Turner and safety Adrian Amos in the 2019 free agency. And, as was the case with Thompson, Gutekunst's first-ever selection as Packers' GM in April 2018 - cornerback Jaire Alexander - has been a resounding success, with No.23 already amongst the best in the NFL at his position at age 25.
But, in short order, the rest of Green Bay's 2018 draft class has soured: only linebacker Oren Burks, receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown remain, and it's possible that none of them are on the roster come September. More importantly, the top echelon of Gutekunst's draft personnel are still on the cusp of maturity: OLB Rashan Gary, FS Darnell Savage, OL Elgton Jenkins, RB A.J. Dillon, CB Eric Stokes and C Josh Myers have each shown tremendous promise, but are yet to laminate themselves as guaranteed producers over the long-term.
The Path Forward
The Packers have one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL -- but the cost of that talent pool is no longer financially sustainable. The inevitable salary cut slashing needing to happen this offseason probably begins with Gutekunst's expensive 2019 free agents. Additionally, with heavily-backloaded deals, Jones and Bakhtiari are almost certainly on their final contracts in Green Bay - and it's even clearer that Rodgers and Adams' remaining time in green and gold is nearing the end.
As Thompson's remaining draft stock age out of their prime playing days, it's critical that Gutekunst's - all of which are still on rookie deals - begin to pick up the slack.
With the Packers riddled of injuries at EDGE in 2021, Gary was often a sole source of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but he regularly took himself out of plays with poor angles at the QB. In the defensive backfield, fellow third-year pro Savage began to pair known ball hawking with solid tackling -- but too many times dropped easy interceptions and was challenged covering opposing tight ends like Baltimore's Mark Andrews.
Quarterback Jordan Love - selected in the first round of the 2020 draft - is obviously a unique case. While the heavily-criticized project passer has received little playing time in two years as a pro, he hasn't shown much with the snaps he's received. Like it or not, Love is obviously the most important draft pick for Gutekunst to have gotten right. If he fails to develop in the coming preseason, Gute will be forced to back-peddle into a fire sale of the former first-rounder and pursue another DeShone Kizer-type backfill at QB.
Whether Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay in 2022 or not, it's time for Gutekunst's guys to become the true foundation of this Packers team.
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