Another season, another Super Bowl run that comes up short. Like clockwork, Packers fans ponder what could have been - and perhaps what differences in personnel could have gotten it done this year.
Through the eyes of a cheesehead, the Packers organization may not seem as "all in" as other franchises when it comes to snapping up the pieces needed to win NOW. GM Brian Gutekunst made a half-baked effort at defensive lineman J.J. Watt last March and, following his release in November, offered the veteran minimum to Odell Beckham Jr., who became a valuable asset for the Rams' offense down the stretch.
As hard as it may be to believe, the Green Bay front office has, in fact, stretched as far possible financially to "get over the hump." They've paid their best players while adding pricey veterans in recent offseasons. Unfortunately, the their latest playoff flop leaves Rodgers still chasing a second Super Bowl ring. And, with the Packers a projected ~$40 million over the cap entering the 2022 season, keeping their band of superstars will be even less possible this time around.
A Preview of a Busy Offseason Ahead
While head coach Matt LaFleur indicated that some tough decisions lie ahead, it appears that the front office is committed to having Rodgers back and incentivizing him to do so with the retention of key assets, such as Davante Adams and the resurgent De'Vondre Campbell. But, Rodgers' whopping $47 million cap hit in 2022, paired with unprecedented money thrown at a receiver nearing age 30, would put Green Bay in an even more precarious financial position, needing to walk back more than just one mega-contract.
That likely starts two of Rodgers' trusty veterans Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis. But it also likely includes the face of the Packers' defense, OLB Za'Darius Smith, who would contribute $27 million toward the salary cap next season. After Smith, the Packers may consider dropping the other Smith, Preston, and potentially the two other members of their expensive, 2019 free agent class: OL Billy Turner and SS Adrian Amos.
But, the crafty Russ Ball and Packers' front office have managed to creatively restructure contracts in recent years and, in some ways, manipulate the team's cap position. Keeping their "core" talents, plus other key contributors like WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, DL Dean Lowry and CB Rasul Douglas, is not entirely out of the question. However, most of that manipulation often means pushing money into the future. And there's one thing that can't happen in the process: compromise the next gen.
The Packers' Next Generation of Talent
Gutekunst has largely picked up where former GM Ted Thompson left off with draft day excellence, bagging three starters in his first two first rounds as general manager (CB Jaire Alexander in 2018 and OLB Rashan Gary and FS Darnell Savage in 2019). It would seem obvious that the Packers dole out the same no-brainer extensions they made for 2016 first rounder Kenny Clark.
But, the back-loaded nature of many key players' contracts -- RB Aaron Jones, in particular -- puts pressure on the Packers' ability to offer pay days to this future crop of talent. Shelling out a multi-year deal to Adams that makes him the highest-paid receiver in the game will surely come with future tradeoffs.
It's not just their recent first-round picks that need to soon be paid. The Packers will want to lock up second round picks OL Elgton Jenkins and RB A.J. Dillon within the next few years as well. They may also be interested in offering long-term contracts to TE Robert Tonyan (depending on his recovery from a torn ACL injury) and LB Krys Barnes sometime soon. It's inevitable: not everyone is going to get paid.
Ball and Gutekunst are acutely aware of the implications that another "last dance"-type push could have on retaining younger talent. I expect them to pursue some creative but balanced approach to preserving a roster that's attractive enough to keep Rodgers in green and gold for one final season.
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