Coming into training camp back last July, Packers fans were wowed with the depth of young, offensive talent that would be soon asked to fill the shoes of greats like Davante Adams. Those hopes quickly came to a halt for TE Jace Sternberger, who had been with the Packers for only two years. After the 2019 third-rounder returned from his suspension in September, he was waived.
While Sternberger truly never found a fit in the offense, things haven't looked significantly better for GM Brian Gutekunst's next two third-round picks, TE Josiah Deguara and WR Amari Rodgers.
Both Deguara and Rodgers were drafted specifically for their presumed fit with Matt LaFleur's offensive scheme, full of pre-snap motion, jet sweeps and versatile blocking assignments in and out of the backfield. Having witnessed the quick success of LaFleur's system, Gutekunst incorporated it into his personnel selection on draft day. In Rodgers' case, the Packers were reportedly interested in selecting him with their 2021 second round pick, which they ultimately used on C/G Josh Myers. They did, however, shell out an extra fourth-round pick to land Rodgers in the mid-third round. But, so far, the investment has not paid off.
Some History
Since drafting long-term S Morgan Burnett in 2010, the Packers have repeatedly swung and missed on nearly a dozen players in the third round of the draft. For the worst of these picks, the Packers learned to part ways quickly. That includes Sternberger, 2011 RB Alex Green and 2014 DT Khyri Thornton, none of whom made it to a third season in Green Bay.
Even some of the more "productive" selections failed to receive a second contract with Green Bay.
For two years since being drafted in 2016, OLB Kyler Fackrell failed to make an impact, before finally becoming a contributor in the third year of his contract. But, it wasn't enough for GM Brian Gutekunst to add a pair of edge rushers in the 2019 free agency that spelled the end of Fackrell in Green Bay a year later. Converted receiver and 2015 pick Ty Montgomery became a temporary hero as a running back when starter Eddie Lacy went down in 2016, but was quickly ousted after a fumble on a kickoff cost the Packers a game in 2018 and potentially altered their second half of the season.
Finally, there are mixed-big cases like 2014 TE Richard Rodgers and 2017 DT Montravius Adams. Both were fringe starters and mildly productive, but clearly not worth retaining after their rookie deal expired. This is likely to be the case for 2018 LB and special teamer Oren Burks, who seems like a long shot to be brought back next year.
Un-opportunistic
Throughout 2021, the Packers have been rattled with injuries, forcing a "next man up" attitude that turned backups like OT Yosh Nijman into capable starters overnight. But, when the opportunity presented itself at their respective positions, neither Deguara nor Rodgers have quite risen to the challenge.
When starting TE Robert Tonyan suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 8, it opened the door to a greater role for Deguara. Despite possessing more of a true H-back skill set, Deguara found himself with an increased number of snaps by virtue of the Packers not having a three-down tight end on the roster. He's only partially capitalized on it, with a pair of multi-catch games in December that were then spoiled by a brutal touchdown drop last week versus Minnesota.
Despite having one less year under his belt, Rodgers has been seemingly more disappointing. The rookie has been an utter liability as a return specialist, guilty of several muffs and failing to register a punt return longer than 15 yards all season. As a receiver, he's only recorded three receptions for 40 yards this year, despite a Week 12 injury to Randall Cobb that should have meant a greater role for Rodgers on offense. Given the perhaps, pre-maturely high expectations for the Clemson product, Rodgers has already begun to feel like a bust.
What's Ahead
It seems unlikely that Gutekunst and LaFleur would pull the trigger quickly on the two underperforming offensive weapons anytime soon, the way they did with Sternberger earlier this fall. Much will depend on looming personnel decisions this offseason, such as whether Tonyan is part of the Packers' 2022 plans and, more notably, what happens with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers' potential departure will likely influence offseason moves by Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, which could have ripple effects on the roles that Deguara and Amari Rodgers are afforded in 2022.
However, simply subtracting other talent doesn't necessarily mean that these two third-rounders will live up to the players that Gutekunst expected them to be when making them Packers in the third round of each of the past two drafts. Both will need to show greater reliability, for starters - i.e. eliminating dropped passes and missed blocks - and then provide some spark and play making ability that forces defensive coordinators to account for them in game planning.
From what I've seen this season - and given the Packers' curse-like track record in the third round - I won't hold my breath.
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