With the NFL combine a wrap, we're less than 60 days away from the 2022 NFL Draft. This year's class, from GM Brian Gutekunst's own words, has impressive early-round talent along the offensive line, at pass rusher and at wide receiver.
This might suggest that Gutekunst is salivating over a certain player or two, and the Packers will trade up on Days 1 or 2 of the draft. After all, he shelled out multiple picks to move up for QB Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft and for WR Amari Rodgers in the third down of last year's draft.
On the flip side, this unique positional depth could lead to Green Bay trading down and snapping up quality talent a round later than it may otherwise come off the board. The Packers haven't traded out of the first round since 2017, when GM-at-the-time Ted Thompson passed up on future all-pro OLB T.J. Watt at 30th overall in favor of CB Kevin King with the first pick of the second round. While Thompson was a major advocate of trading down and amassing young talent, Gutekunst has been a different breed, anteing up picks when he has conviction over a certain player.
For this draft in particular, however, Gute may be better off waiting until Friday to make his first pick.
A byproduct of the Packers' all-in cap situation is the inevitable "spring cleaning" that will happen this March or next. The Packers will find themselves without some or all of their talented 2019 free agent class (OLB Za'Darius Smith, OLB Preston Smith, OL Billy Turner, S Adrian Amos) - plus key contributors such as DL Dean Lowry, ILB De'Vondre Campbell and TE Robert Tonyan, all of whom will be hard to retain this month. Even worse, they'll also soon have to fill massive holes left by the best in the game: QB Aaron Rodgers, OT David Bakhtiari, WR Davante Adams and, potentially, RB Aaron Jones.
This is all to say that the Packers will quickly be in need of young talent at many different positions, some of which line up with the most loaded spots of this year's draft class.
If each position's Top 2-3 talents are off the board by the time the Packers' pick rolls around at 28, Gutekunst may consider moving out of the first round. In a scenario where he moves back into the upper third of the second round, the Packers may still be able to land a handful of elite talents at wide receiver, offensive line or outside linebacker, in particular, while picking up an extra second or third-round pick in the process.
With Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams and Ohio State's dynamic WR duo likely to be taken in Round 1, Gutekunst could still find his next WR1 in Georgia's George Pickens or Purdue's David Bell sometime in the second round. Both players possess NFL-ready size, are capable of contesting jump balls and, like most Packers receivers, are dangerous after the catch.
Similarly, Gutekunst could reap the benefits of a talented pool of pass rushers, nabbing a long-term running mate for OLB Rashan Gary in Minnesota's Boye Mafe or San Diego State's Cameron Thomas in the early second round. While it will be tough to lay off a rusher such as Florida State's Jermaine Johnson or Michigan's David Ojabo at 28, Gute may be able to find comparable talent only a dozen picks later.
Where this strategy is unlikely to be fruitful is at the thinner positions of five technique (3-4 DE), strong safety and inside linebacker, where there appears to be some meaningful drop-off of talent between the class's top echelon and the next crop of players. If the Packers pass on class leaders like Texas A&M DE DeMarvin Leal, Michigan S Daxton Hill or Utah ILB Devin Lloyd, they may be better off going for a Tier 2 player in the mid rounds, the same way they've de-prioritized these positions in the past.
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