What fan doesn't love a sweet W to kick off the regular season?
Since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach, Packers fans have been spoiled into fast starts and comfy division leads early in the regular season. In each of the past two seasons, the Packers won their first three games and entered November with just one loss. With a stout, but beatable set of opponents to begin 2021, most of us expect a 3-1 start or better.
Let this be your first reminder that: It's. A. Long. Season.
Some History
Fast starts - like the Packers' 6-0 beginning to the 2015 season - can provide a nice cushion in division races...but do not always equate to season-long success. Instead, some of the Packers' best seasons under Rodgers have gotten off to rocky starts.
During their Super Bowl season, the Packers endured several painful nail biters and started 3-3. Kicking off their division-winning 2012 season, they narrowly avoided a 1-3 start with Mason Crosby's last-minute field goal over the Saints in Week 4. To begin a 2014 season that saw the Packers reach the NFC title game, they dropped two of their first three, leading to Rodgers' famous call to R-E-L-A-X. Finally, in 2016, they nosedived to 4-6 before winning eight straight and, yet again, falling one game shy of the Super Bowl.
Sometimes, Adversity Helps
What these teams endured is constructive adversity, which can come in the form of:
losing back-to-back games
being beaten badly by division opponents
most tangibly, actually being at risk of missing the playoffs
Experiencing adversity can sometimes help reveal problematic areas on either side of the ball and help teams course-correct before repeating mistakes in the postseason.
The 2020 Bucs are a great example. Beaten twice by the Saints during regular season - the last of which was a blowout in front of their home fans - the Bucs were far from being in the driver's seat late in the season. But, Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay defense rebounded, finding new ways to pressure Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in the postseason.
Comfortable Starts Have Masked Problems
The Packers have experienced no such early-season drama under LaFleur. During 2020, they followed the very consistent script of scoring on their first offensive drive, building a comfortable halftime lead and protecting it during the second half with a favorable turnover ratio and ground game that could chew up clock. But, when opponents found a way to disrupt this tempo and the Packers forced to play from behind, things unraveled.
One confounding aspect of the Packers' back-to-back NFC Championships is that they lost in very similar ways to those respective teams during the regular season.
Against the 49ers in 2019, the Green Bay defense was beaten badly in the trenches, allowing Raheem Mostert and the Niners backfield to run wild during both their regular season meeting and NFC title game clash. Versus the Bucs last season, the Packers' explosive offense was kept at bay by a Tampa front seven that never allowed Aaron Jones and the running game to establish a rhythm.
In Conclusion
To reach the Super Bowl for the first time in over a decade, the Packers must learn from regular season mistakes and prove the ability to win games in multiple ways.
One can expect a challenging set of games against the NFC West during the regular season to yield at least one loss. So, should the season go the way we expect, and the Packers find themselves in the postseason, will LaFleur and Co. have learned from regular season mistakes in a potential postseason rematch with say, the Rams or 49ers?
I'm not suggesting that early-season losses and tight division races are something we should hope for. Instead, it's worth remembering that losses are not always an utter talent gap that can't be overcome later in the season - but instead an opportunity to change the dynamic on offense or defense and reduce vulnerability during a postseason rematch.
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