The past 24 months have been a roller coaster at 1265 Lombardi Avenue, to say the least.
Rewind to 2021: Having found a way to retain Aaron Jones in March, navigate through a summer of drama with Aaron Rodgers and add street free agents that helped save an injury-ridden defense, GM Brian Gutekunst did just about everything possible to position the Packers for another Super Bowl run. The team nabbed the NFC's 1-seed for a second straight season and was finally returning to full health. This was their chance.
Instead, they went one-and-done in the postseason, and the topic of a rebuild glared Gute in the face.
Get Over the Hump, or Punt?
Much of the fan base and NFL media expected Green Bay to move on from Rodgers and start a rebuild, despite three consecutive 13-win seasons and a blank resume from the alleged successor at quarterback, Jordan Love. Instead, Gutekunst emphatically doubled down on "now" during the 2022 offseason, with a series of moves that kept the championship pieces together within salary cap constraints.
He started with the most direct form of commitment to Rodgers: a multi-year contract worth $150 million, full of guarantees. He then threw big money at key defensive assets in De'Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas and Preston Smith. Finally, when a loaded deal to Davante Adams wasn't enough to sustain the star receiver's interest in remaining with Green Bay, Gutekunst went to work for his future hall of fame quarterback, forking up multiple draft picks to land an elite wide receiver, Christian Watson, early in the second round.
"All-In" - But Quickly Out
With just weeks left in the 2022 regular season, Green Bay's version of "all-in" has proven not nearly enough to overcome suspect coaching, injuries on defense and a broken thumb to Rodgers that's affected his play the majority of the season. By mid October, the team had promptly matched their most regular season losses under HC Matt LaFleur. As of December 1st, they were effectively out of the NFC playoff picture.
The franchise now finds itself grounded, seemingly destined to turn the page and begin a new chapter. And, in the NFL, new chapters almost always start with changes at quarterback, be it through "tanking for ____" or trying to bridge together one era to the next.
And that's where Green Bay is in territory familiar to three other, well-run franchises.
The New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks all came up short in recent postseasons and proceeded to watch their future hall of fame quarterback ride off into the sunset (or, in Wilson's case, to "greener" pastures). But, despite all four teams being in a similar boat, their respective front offices have gone about rebuilding in different ways.
| New Orleans | Pittsburgh | Seattle |
Franchise QB | Drew Brees | Ben Roethlisburger | Russell Wilson |
Lead time for departure | 2019 | 2018 | 2020 |
Departure | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
Rookie QB additions | Book (2021 R4) | Rudolph (2018 R3) | None |
Veteran QB additions | - Siemian (2021) - Winston (2021) - Dalton (2022) | - Haskins (2021) - Trubisky (2022) | - Smith (2021) - Lock (2022) |
Despite being several beats ahead of Green Bay in the rebuild process, all three other franchises are yet to find a definitive answer at the quarterback position.
The Saints and Steelers initially made half-baked attempts at scooping up their version of a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in the mid-rounds, but came up empty. After passing on Lamar Jackson when available in the first round of the 2018 draft, Pittsburgh waited for a deteriorating Big Ben to retire before pouncing on local hero Kenny Pickett with the 20th overall pick in the 2022 draft, which included arguably the worst quarterback class in over a decade.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and Seattle both prioritized positions like running back in the draft (Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker) and dealt first-round picks for premier veteran safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jamal Adams). New Orleans invested in supporting cast infrastructure (Trevor Penning, Chris Olave), but no signal caller. As you may be able to deduce, all three entered the 2022 season with journeyman quarterbacks to game-manage the offense in the interim.
Right or wrong, the three franchises slept on the opportunity to get ahead of a long-term void at QB. Compare these paths to the Packers' highly-criticized selection of Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft - well before their face of the franchise showed any kind of signs of deterioration - and just months after their trip to the NFC Championship Game.
And that's where the Green Bay Packers have taken a decidedly different approach to the game's most important position.
Rebuilding the "Packer Way"
Beginning in 1992, Ron Wolf shelled out a first round pick for Brett Favre, despite the promise of Don Majkowski as Green Bay's next quarterback. A little over a decade later, Ted Thompson nabbed Rodgers before Brett was ready to hand over the reins. Finally, Brian Gutekunst followed suit in 2020 by giving up extra picks to move up and select Love at 26th overall. Let's also not forget the many other insurance policies and hedged bets made at quarterback by the org over the years: Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, Brian Brohm, Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer.
Most front offices treat QB the same way they do any other position: when it becomes a need, draft one. But, as former Green Bay executive Andrew Brandt has said multiple times, "the worst time to find a quarterback is when you need one." As you'll notice from the many attempted QB succession plans in the NFL over the past two decades, Brandt may have a point.
Rather uniquely, the Packers have made use of a veteran quarterback's later years as valuable lead time for finding and developing a younger QB. This "learning" period has helped acquaint the younger QB with the offensive system, improve his throwing mechanics (remember Rodgers holding the ball above his ear?) and, most importantly, ensure that they have *someone* waiting in the wings for when the franchise needs to turn the page.
This is the Packers' method and there is no cut-and-dry approach to successfully replacing a franchise quarterback. However, the probability of success seems to improve when following two basic principles from their book.
1) Cool / Lukewarm Need at QB: Begin looking for a quarterback in a draft BEFORE you absolutely must have one. This affords the front office the opportunity to select a quarterback when he is truly the best player available, not just the best quarterback available.
2) Sufficient Time on the Bench: Require a rookie quarterback to first learn the game from the sidelines for some meaningful period of time. This affords the rookie time to adjust to the speed and complexity of the NFL behind a veteran.
Sure, a franchise might be lucky enough to walk into a Justin Herbert right when they are in need of a quarterback. That may be the case in Pittsburgh as the Steelers may have something in Kenny Pickett, a draft pick made based on current need. But, as the data shows, for every successful instant starter, there seems to be at least one or two that don't pan out.
That trend is even more pronounced when taking into account teams NOT in a succession plan scenario, such as the repeated swings and misses at quarterback by Cleveland, Washington, Chicago and New York (Jets). These franchises have reached on quarterbacks that aren't worthy of first-round picks and have proceeded to throw them into the fire without much of a supporting cast: a recipe for disaster that we simply haven't seen in Green Bay for some time.
Will It Work This Time Around?
In August, Love showcased notable progress as a passer, albeit against mostly second and third-string defenses. In his third season as a pro (but only second preseason due to COVID), many considered this kind of preseason showing as just having met baseline expectations.
But, in Week 12 against the league-leading Eagles, an injury to Aaron Rodgers brought about some déjà vu: backup Jordan Love entered the game, nearly 15 years to the date that young Aaron Rodgers stepped in for an injured Brett Favre against the 2007 NFC top dog, Cowboys.
And, for the first time since being drafted, Love truly flashed.
Like Rodgers, he demonstrated improved mechanics, better decision-making and overall command of the offense. In just over a quarter of play, Love tallied 113 passing yards on six completions and a beautiful touchdown pass to Christian Watson. On prime time, in a hostile, road game environment, Love simply delivered, moving the deficit to just a single score before his defense blew it - much the same way it did for Rodgers in 2007.
It's beyond ironic - and maybe we're just trying too hard to morph subtle parallels into a superfluous vision for Love's long-term NFL career, which has hardly even begun.
However, one cannot dispute the role that Green Bay's long-term approach to QB development have had on Love's chances at succeeding in the NFL - the way it did for Rodgers. And, while fans still wince at the Packers passing on a receiver in favor of Love, it's important to note that Green Bay's approach to QB succession planning requires the willingness to take a risk on a special talent when it falls into your lap - regardless of whether it lines up with what's left of the incumbent QB's playing days.
The Packers placed their second major bet on a quarterback in 2020 and, for the time being, can maintain optimism that their approach comes to fruition, the way it did with Aaron Rodgers.
Commentaires